The Effects of Nuclear War
Chapter IV
CASE 2: A SOVIET ATTACK ON U.S. OIL REFINERIES
Long-Term Effects
Postattack society would be permanently and irrevocably changed. People would live in different places, work at different jobs, and travel in different ways. They would buy different things and take different kinds of vacations. The Nation would tend to apply the lessons of the past to future policy by seeking to reduce its vulnerabilities to the last attack. Energy conservation, where not required by regulations, would be encouraged by prices, taxes, and subsidies. Railroads and mass transit would supplant travel by cars and planes; rail and ships would substitute for planes and trucks in hauling freight. Automobile production would drop sharply and would emphasize energy-efficient models; bicycles and motorcycles would be popular. While housing construction would not necessarily end in the suburbs, new homes there would probably be built closer together so that mass transit could serve them. Construction in cities would boom. All houses would be better insulated; more would use solar energy as fuel costs soared.
Farms would be able to obtain adequate supplies of petroleum and its derivatives. Agriculture uses only 4 or 5 percent of the Nation’s petroleum, and its products are necessary. While gasoline and petrochemical-based fertilizers and pesticides would be much more expensive, they comprise only a small fraction of farm expenses and would be essential for large-scale efficient agriculture. Moreover much fertilizer is made from natural gas rather than petroleum, so its price would not rise as dramatically as that of gasoline, Petroleumrelated cost increases would be passed on to the consumer. The character of agriculture could change, however. In particular, the livestock industry might be sharply curtailed. At every stage, livestock raising, slaughter, and distribution require much more energy than do crops. For example, rapid transportation and extensive refrigeration are required. Meat would become very much more costly in relation to other foods than it is now, and so would become a luxury. If livestock production dropped, a major source of demand for corn, soybeans, and other fodder would decline, possibly slowing price increases for other farm products.
Although refineries and oil importing facilities would be rebuilt, U.S. refining capacity after recovery would probably be less than preattack capacity. Increased prices for gasoline and heating oil would shift demand to other sources of energy, raising their prices and encouraging an acceleration of their development.
Patterns of industrial production would shift dramatically because of these changes, forcing massive shifts in demand for skills and resources. Many people and factories would be oriented to the production of things no longer in demand; it would take many years for the economy to adjust to the sudden, massive changes imposed by the attack.
The attack would affect public health. Chapter V discusses the long-term effects of sublethal levels of radiation. Petrochemical plants damaged by the attack would leak carcinogenous petrochemicals, but numbers of cancer cases from this source, the time of their appearance, and the duration of the threat cannot be predicted. To the extent that contamination or destruction of housing, or economic collapse, force people to live in substandard housing, illness would increase. Not all changes, however, would be for the worse. Some new patterns of living would promote public health. There would be fewer auto, aircraft, and boating accidents. More people would walk or bicycle, increasing exercise. Reduced consumption of meat would reduce dietary fats, heart attacks, and strokes. At some point, Government-imposed controls necessitated by the attack could be lifted because societal changes and market forces (price increases, alternative energy sources, residential patterns, and numbers and efficiency of cars) would achieve the goals of controls without coercion. For example, gasoline rationing would certainly be imposed immediately after the attack, and might be lifted in stages as refining capacity was restored, or subsidies to expand and support mass transit could level off or decline as revenues made it self-supporting.
The Nation’s adjustment to all these changes would be painful. The problems would be especially severe because of the speed of their onset. Many people say that the United States would be better off if it was less dependent on cars and petroleum. While changing to new patterns of living via nuclear attack would minimize political problems of deciding to change, it would maximize the difficulties of transition. Problems would appear all at once, while any advantages of new patterns of living would come slowly.