The Effects of Nuclear War
Chapter IV
CASE 2: A SOVIET ATTACK ON U.S. OIL REFINERIES
Reaction: The First Week
During this period people would be in a state of shock, with their lives disrupted and further drastic changes inevitable. Many would have loved ones killed and homes destroyed. Factories and offices in the target areas would be destroyed, throwing people out of work. People would face many immediate tasks: care of the injured, burial of the dead, search and rescue, and fire fighting.
Fires at petroleum refineries, storage tanks, and petrochemical factories would rage for hours or days, adding to the damage caused by blast. Some oil tanks would rupture and the oil would leak onto rivers or harbors, where it would ignite and spread fire. Fires at refineries could not be extinguished because of intense heat, local fallout, an inadequate supply of chemicals to use on petroleum fires, and roads blocked by rubble and evacuees. Petrochemical plants, already damaged by blast, would be further damaged by fire and would leak toxic chemicals. As discussed in chapter II, firestorms or conflagrations might begin, in this case supported by thousands of tons of gasoline. Anyway, the plants would likely be damaged beyond repair. Finally, with fires threatening to burn, poison, or asphyxiate people in shelters, rescue crews would attach top priority to rescuing survivors.
Once it was clear that further attacks were unlikely, the undamaged areas of the country would supply aid. However, the available medical aid would be totally inadequate to treat burns this attack would cause. The radius of third-degree burns (5.2 nautical miles [9.6 km] for a 1-Mt weapon air burst) is far greater than for any other life-threatening injury, and huge fires would cause more burns. But, even in peacetime, the entire United States has facilities to treat only a few thousand burn cases adequately at any one time.
If the attack used ground bursts exclusively, it would cause fewer prompt fatalities (2.9 million instead of 5.0 million for the air burst case), but much fallout. Given the extensive fallout sheltering described above, 312,000 people would die of fallout. Fallout casualties, however, would depend strongly on wind directions: would gulf coast fallout blow toward Atlanta, Miami, Cuba, or Venezuela? Would New Jersey fallout land on New York City on its way out to sea? The problems of shelterers are discussed under “Case 3: A Counterforce Attack Against the United States,” in this chapter.
Beyond the physical damage, people would realize that a central assumption of their lives–that nuclear war could not occur—was wrong. Even people beyond target areas would know immediately that secondary effects would irrevocably change their way of life; survivors traveling to undamaged areas would drive this point home. Most would fear further attacks, and would seek protection by evacuating or seeking shelter. While recovery plans could be made and damage assessed, little reconstruction could be done with many people away or in shelters. Thus, the reaction period would not end until most people acted as if they believed the war was over.