The Effects of Nuclear War
Chapter V
FINDINGS
The calculations for long-term radiation hazards, with all their uncertainties, permit an order-of-magnitude conclusion:
- There would be a substantial number of deaths and illness due to radiation among those who were lucky enough to escape a lethal dose during the first weeks after the attack.
- The number of deaths would be very large by peacetime standards, and the hazards much greater than what is considered tolerable today.
- The number of deaths would be rather small compared to the number of deaths resulting from the immediate effects of the attack — millions compared to tens or hundreds of millions.
In contrast, the incalculable effects of damage to the Earth’s ecological system might be on the same order of magnitude as the immediate effects, but it is not known how to calculate or even estimate their likelihood.