The Effects of Nuclear War

OTHER LONG-TERM EFFECTS

The preceding chapter has made it clear that even the immediate effects of a nuclear attack would have a long-term impact. Structures and resources that would be destroyed in seconds (by blast) or hours (by fire) might not be rebuilt or replaced for years, or even decades. People who would die in seconds or in weeks (from fallout radiation) might not be replaced in a demographic sense for several generations. Political social, and economic changes arising from the immediate postattack disruption would probably prove in some significant respects to be irreversible.

There is another category of effects of nuclear war, however, which are “long term” in the sense that they would probably not be noticeable for some months, or even years, after the attack took place. Such effects include long-term somatic and genetic damage from radiation, possible changes in the physical environment (including the possibility of damage to the ozone layer of the upper atmosphere), and possible changes in the ecological system of which humans area part. These are effects that conventional weapons cannot produce. They are discussed under three rubrics:

• Effects from low-level ionizing radiation, which are reasonably certain to take place, whose magnitude would depend on the scope of the attack, and which can to some extent be calculated on the basis of existing data and theory.
• Damage to the ozone layer in the atmosphere. Such damage could injure human and animal health, and possibly lead to changes in the Earth’s climate. At the present time it is not known how to calculate the likelihood of its occurrence, but ongoing research into the chemistry of the upper atmosphere offers promise of greater understanding in the future.
• Other effects whose magnitude and likelihood are incalculable, but whose possibility should not be ignored.

---