The Effects of Nuclear War
Chapter IV
CASE 4: A LARGE SOVIET ATTACK ON U.S. MILITARY AND ECONOMIC TARGETS
The Shelter Period (Up to a Month)
As noted earlier, after the initial shock period, including locating and getting settled in shelters, the problem of sheltering large masses of people will be compounded as the shelter time extends. Survival will remain the key concern. People will experience or witness radiation death and sickness for the first time. Many previously untreated injuries will require medical attention, if permanent damage or death to the individual is to be avoided. Stockpiles of medical, food, and water supplies are sure to become items of utmost concern. Whether some people can safely venture outside the shelter for short periods to forage for uncontaminated supplies will depend on fallout intensity, and the availability of reliable means of measuring it.
This period will continue to be marked by more inactivity than activity. Many areas will have been freed from the fallout threat either by rain, shifting winds, or distance from the detonations. But economic activity will not resume immediately. Workers will remain concerned about their immediate families and may not want to risk leaving them. Information and instruction may not be forthcoming, and if it is, it may be confusing and misleading, and of little use. Uncertainty and frustration will plague the survivors, and even the most minor tasks will require efforts far out of proportion to their difficulty. Many will interpret this as symptomatic of radiation effects and become further confused and depressed. The overall psychological effects will likely worsen until they become a major national concern, perhaps on the same level with other incapacitating injuries.
Deaths occurring within the first 30 days of an attack are categorized as prompt fatalities. This duration is a computation standard more than it is related to specific death-producing effects, and is the basis for most fatality estimates. However, deaths from burns, injuries, and radiation sickness can be expected to continue far beyond this particular interval.