The Effects of Nuclear War
Chapter IV
CASE 3: A COUNTERFORCE ATTACK AGAINST THE UNITED STATES
Long-Term Effects
The main long-term damage would be caused by countersilo strikes, which release the great bulk of radiation even if bomber and missile submarine bases are also attacked. Radiation has long-term health consequences, such as cancers, other illnesses, deaths, and genetic damage, that blast does not.
Similarly, ecological damage would be caused mainly by countersilo attacks; this topic is dealt with in chapter V.
In the long run, the economy would recover, although it would be some decades before the people killed would be “replaced” in either a demographic or an economic sense. There would undoubtedly be permanent shifts in demand (e. g., there might be little market for houses without basements or fallout shelters), and supply of some goods (notably meat ) might be scarce for some time.
- For example, after the OTA analysis, was completed, a new study was completed showing fatalities from a counterforce attack with the current U.S.civil defense posture to be 8 to 12 million without warning, and 5 to 8 million with warning. See Roger Sullivan et al , “Civil Defense Needs of High-Risk Areas of the United States” (Arlington, Va System Planning Corporation, 1979), p. 22