The Effects of Nuclear War
Chapter IV
CASE 2: A U.S. ATTACK ON SOVIET OIL REFINERIES
Long-Term Effects
Destroying 73 percent of refining capacity would force the economy onto a crisis footing, curtailing choices and consumer goods, dropping the standard of living from austere to grim, and setting back Soviet economic progress by many years. Recovery might follow the post-World War II pattern, with a slow but steady improvement in the quality of life. But recovery would be slow, The desire to reduce vulnerability to future attacks would undoubtedly divert resources from recovery to such tasks as building some underground refineries. While the United States could possibly recover in a way that would use less petroleum than it did prewar, this course would be difficult for the U.S.S.R. because much of Soviet petroleum goes to necessities. Longterm health and genetic effects would be less than for the United States because of the smaller size of U.S. weapons and the location of Soviet refineries away from people. But the Soviet Government might accept greater radiation exposure for people in order to speed production, increasing such effects.