The Effects of Nuclear War
Chapter IV
CASE 2: A U.S. ATTACK ON SOVIET OIL REFINERIES
Reaction: The First Week
As in the United States, life for the surviving majority would be totally disrupted. Many would be directly affected by the attack: the injured, those with injured relatives, the homeless, people affected by shortages. Accommodation to a future with a sharply reduced petroleum supply would begin: gasoline and other products might be hoarded, by enterprises if not by individuals. Some less-important industries would probably be closed to save fuel or to allow their workers to shift to the military, agriculture, and essential industry. Until it became clear that the war was over, millions of reservists would be mobilized for military service, placing a heavy demand on the domestic economy to replace them. Because of the mobilization, hours worked and the mix of production would change dramatically and overnight; workers in essential industries might be on 12-hour shifts; other workers not drafted would be pressed into service in essential industries, and quite possibly moved to factories in distant areas. The speed and magnitude of disruption would cause much psychological shock.
How would the Soviet Union cope with the damage? Although a greater percentage of its refining capacity would be destroyed, it would suffer fewer fatalities than would the United States (1.0 million to 1.5 million versus 3.2 million to 5.0 million) and fewer injuries (2.5 million to 3.8 million versus 3.9 million to 4.9 million) because of the lower yield of U.S. weapons and the location of Soviet refineries away from cities. If all weapons were air burst at optimum height of burst, there would be negligible fallout in both countries; if all weapons were ground burst, the Soviet Union would receive far less fallout because of the lower yield of the weapons. Because the Soviets have built many widely dispersed small dispensaries and first aid centers, rather than smaller numbers of modern full-service hospitals concentrated in cities, more of these facilities would survive than in the United States. In addition, many Russians have received first aid training, and people with injuries that could be treated by paramedics, dispensaries, and first aid would probably be better off than their American counterparts; others would be at least as bad off. Those who required treatment at major hospitals would suffer because of the small number of beds in nearby modern hospitals and the inability of the Soviet transportation system to move them elsewhere. Like the United States, the U.S.S.R. could not cope with large numbers (say, over 100) of severe burn cases. There would be many victims of severe burns in both nations who would die for lack of adequate treatment.
The damage, the emergency conditions, and the risk of further attacks would remind everyone of the special horror that the Soviets faced in World War II. The psychological trauma would be exacerbated in the first week by anticipation of crisis economic conditions. The Soviet Government in past crises has proved to be ruthless and efficient in moving people to parts of the country where labor was needed. Such action would be likely in this crisis as well, along with cutbacks in food, consumer goods, housing construction and maintenance, and transportation. Only regimentation would be likely to increase. Life would be grim, and would remain so for years.