STRATEGIC FORCES ASSUMED

The strategic forces assumed to be available for an early to mid-1980’s conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union are derived from open-source estimates of weapons characteristics and force levels. Generally, the forces are assumed to be within SALT II established limits and assume the completion of ongoing intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) modernization programs of both superpowers. For the United States this means that yield and accuracy improvements for the MM III force are carried out. On the Soviet side, it means completing the deployment of their fourth-generation ICBMS, the SS-17, SS-18, and SS-19.

A recent study conducted by the Congressional Budget Office, entitled, “Counterforce Issues for the U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces,” provided table B-1, which shows Soviet forces and their capabilities for the early to mid 1980’s.

Western estimates differ as to the exact attributes and capabilities of Soviet strategic systems, As a result some of the assumptions used in the studies drawn on for this report are mutually inconsistent. This would be an important factor in an analysis of relative U.S. and Soviet military effectiveness, where the outcomes of a study would be very sensitive to the exact technical data used. In a study of the impacts of nuclear war on civilian population, however, a slight difference in the estimated yield or accuracy of a Soviet weapon will have no corresponding effect on the computation of the consequences of a given attack, relative to the degree of uncertainty that already exists in the prediction of those consequences.

U.S. estimates, on the other hand, are not subject to such great uncertainties. The Congressional Budget Office summary of U.S. forces is shown in table B-2.

It is useful to bear in mind that Soviet ICBM warheads are much higher in yield than their U.S. counterparts. While this has only a marginal impact on relative capabilities to destroy civilian targets on purpose, it means that Soviet attacks on U.S. targets will produce much more collateral damage (i.e. population casualties from attacks on economic targets, or economic and population damage from attacks on military targets) than will U.S. attacks on Soviet targets.

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